The new system mirrors the system which has been successfully used in the Oldham League for many years, however the competitions in Oldham are contested by sides in the same division which makes handicapping much easier.
Because the difference in abilities in the Dwyer Cup is so vast we don’t expect to get the handicaps right first time, so, throughout this season we will be analysing the results of the fixtures to try and ensure that the competition is not being tipped in favour of better / lesser sides which will hopefully allow us to get the handicaps perfect for future years.
1st Round Analysis
We’ll start with the bad. 7 fixtures were not played as teams chose not to field a side. In most cases teams stated that they could not raise a side. Considering in 6 league weeks we have had only 1 awarded game this seems a high number and we suspect the reality is that some (not all) of these teams simply didn’t want to play in the competition.
In the AGM in the summer of 2010 we will table a motion that will allow teams to opt out of the Dwyer and Sponsors Cup in future seasons if they want to, If teams don’t want to compete then we are not going to force them so hopefully this motion will be passed come the AGM.
However, for this season, there is no opt out so we would hope that all teams fulfil their obligations to these competitions in the next round.
Onto the good.
Winning Margin Analysis
The closer the average winning margin is to 1 then the implication is that the handicaps were accurate. There is no way on earth that the marks are going to be 1 obviously.
The Oldham League competition is well regarded and i use that as my barometer. In the Oldham League last year the winning margins average for each of the divisions was:
1st division = 35 (12 fixtures)
2nd division = 38 (11 fixtures)
3rd division = 36 (10 fixtures)
4th division = 34 (10 fixtures)
Total Average Winning Margin: 36 Points (43 fixtures)
Looking at this and given that we handicap across multiple divisions you would expect our winning margins not be as close as this and also i think you would expect the winning margins to get further apart the more the divisions separate the 2 sides, our analysis of the results is:
We are only looking at 19 fixtures so it is difficult to draw accurate conclusions but the first impressions appear to be positive.
I have only received 17 results at this stage with 2 to follow.
Of the 17 results received the winning margins are as follows:
57, 27, 5, 49, 43, 4, 32, 40, 91, 41, 32, 160, 32, 28, 25, 66, 138
Of those results the final one with a winning margin of 138 was a match where only 2 players turned up for 1 team so this will be ignored. Thank you to St Philips B for still playing this fixture even though the game was obviously un-winable with only 2 men.
That leaves 16 fixtures and the average winning margin in these fixtures was 46 points. A little bit disappointing but this was again skewed as a 4th Division side played a 3rd division side and started 60 points ahead – they then proceeded to stretch that to 160 over the course of the night. If we were to ignore that anomaly then the average margin was 36 which is more than satisfactory. I appreciate i am cherry picking results there to make my numbers look better but i am not massively disappointed with an average winning margin of 46 points.
Of the games with a large winning margin one was a match where the handicaps could have been better and i am informed this resulted in 1 team not trying as hard as they might and in another 1 of the games where there was a significant winning margin it is clear that 2 players have practised hard and are considerably better this season than they were last which led to them getting favourable handicaps.
In my own match the winning margin was 49. That might seem a lot on paper but going into the latter matches of the night the gap was just a few points and the winning margin only appeared in the final 2 matches – prior to that it could have gone either way. If all of the other matches were similarly tight, and the winning margins suggest they were, then i am quite happy with the handicapping – It isn’t perfect, never will be but with the odd exception it largely led to competitive matches where either side could have won.
Player Feedback
Most of the feedback i received was positive and a lot of players said they enjoyed the new format and it resulted in a good nights Table Tennis. Some of the positive comments were:
Allowed the number 3 to make a valuable contribution
Introduced a tactical element in regards to if you played your strongest players and took lesser handicaps or worse players and higher handicaps
Resulted in a good amount of table tennis being played rather than a match starting at 14-0 and potentially being over quickly
There were a number of constructive comments but the only real criticism was:
Took away the feeling of winning, as a lesser players role is get as many points as you can rather than win
Next Round
For the first round i had to calculate the handicaps based on last years performances where for future rounds i will be able to use this years data as enough weeks have now passed. To calculate handicaps i use formula’s based on a players current % wins. I don’t know a lot of players, particularly in the lower leagues, so i need some help.
The formula’s depend heavily on a players % wins being an accurate representation of a players ability. If you know one of your team-mates is on a misleading % wins then please send me an e-mail and tell me. If you normally get 55% and you are currently on 60% then it isn’t necessary to tell me as the points difference this will make is minimal, but if you are on 80% and you would normally only get 20% then please tell me as this will make a big difference.
